Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2022
000
FONT14 KNHC 200231
PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042022
0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ROCKPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MCALLEN TX 34 X 15(15) 18(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
MCALLEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 24(24) 11(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
LA PESCA MX 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI