Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025
000 FONT13 KNHC 280257 PWSAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 KTS...175 MPH...280 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 57(64) X(64) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 34(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 54(61) 10(71) X(71) X(71) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) X(41) X(41) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 59(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 13(14) 59(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTEGO BAY 50 20 73(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MONTEGO BAY 64 4 72(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 50 4 29(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) KINGSTON 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH