Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

000 WTNT45 KNHC 082032 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025 500 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025 Despite Jerry's significantly sheared structure, the storm's maximum winds are solidly at 50 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a maximum 5000 ft flight-level wind of 63 kt, which reduces to an intensity of 50 kt.  In addition, Jerry's center passed just south of NOAA buoy 41010, which measured a 1-minute sustained wind of 47 kt a few hours ago.  The buoy's pressure and wind data suggest that Jerry's central pressure is down to about 1000 mb. Jerry is still moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 kt, but the heading has turned slightly to 290 degrees.  There's not much change to the forecast track thinking compared to this morning. Jerry should move around the southwestern and western periphery of an eastern/central Atlantic ridge over the next few days, with the storm turning northwestward by Thursday night and then northward by Friday night.  The bulk of the track models agree on Jerry's center passing between 60-120 n mi northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday.  The HMON and HAFS hurricane models bring the center a bit closer than that, but at this time those are not considered the most likely scenario.  Later in the weekend and early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn north-northeastward and then northeastward, and the bulk of the guidance also moves the storm safely to the southeast of Bermuda in about 4 days.  As always, it's a good idea to continue monitoring future forecasts since model scenarios can change, and NHC track forecasts at day 4 typically have an average error of 130 n mi. Moderate to strong northwesterly shear appears likely to continue for the next few days.  At the same time, Jerry's winds are higher than the satellite appearance would suggest, and warm waters and a moist, unstable environment could still allow for gradual strengthening.  The NHC intensity forecast is not too different from this morning, bringing Jerry to hurricane strength by Friday when there could be a slight decrease in shear magnitude.  That said, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast is generally between the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT  08/2100Z 14.8N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH 12H  09/0600Z 15.9N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH 24H  09/1800Z 17.4N  59.7W   60 KT  70 MPH 36H  10/0600Z 19.4N  61.6W   60 KT  70 MPH 48H  10/1800Z 21.7N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH 60H  11/0600Z 24.1N  62.8W   70 KT  80 MPH 72H  11/1800Z 26.4N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH 96H  12/1800Z 30.6N  61.2W   70 KT  80 MPH 120H  13/1800Z 33.1N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg