Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023
000 WTNT41 KNHC 192046 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023 Visible imagery has shown a partially-exposed, well-defined low-level circulation for the past several hours. Infrared imagery has also shown deep convection persisting since around 0600 UTC east of the center with cold cloud tops of less than -85 degrees C. Therefore, the system now meets the necessary requirements to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 25 kt, respectively, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on that data. Models indicate that the depression is currently in a relatively hostile environment. There is strong deep-layer vertical shear and the mid-level relative humidities are near 40 percent. These conditions are not expected to change much and global models suggest this will be a short-lived depression. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF shows a few bursts of deep convection that are sheared away by 48 hours. The official forecast shows a steady-state depression through 36 hours that degenerates to a remnant low in 48 hours, and dissipates by 60 hours. This prediction is near the various consensus model guidance. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. It is currently being steered by a narrow low-level ridge to its north. The system is expected to turn more westward and slow in forward speed over the next day or so followed by a slight bend back to the west-northwest on day 2. The NHC track forecast is near the simple and corrected model consensus aids, and leans towards the more southerly ECMWF track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 17.0N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.3N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 17.6N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 18.1N 58.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci