000
ABNT20 KNHC 131131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the
Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the
system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is still producing showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the southwest of the center. However, the
system is now moving northward over cooler water, and the chances of
tropical or subtropical development are diminishing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven