Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025
618 FONT15 KNHC 160834 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT JOHN 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI