Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
000 FONT15 KNHC 170300 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 2 7( 9) 17(26) 5(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) GRAND TURK 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT JOHN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN