000
ABNT20 KNHC 221752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to increase. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or
Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over
the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week,
the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system
is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday and near Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake