458
ABNT20 KNHC 240532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical
Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and
gusty winds across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands. This
wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph,
spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic beginning
tonight. The system is then expected to slow down and turn
northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic in a couple
of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for development late this week and weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity
of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci