Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
000 FONT15 KNHC 081452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 1500 UTC WED OCT 08 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 10(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG