Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
000 FONT15 KNHC 130842 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH